Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

When assessing future climate change risks, many initiatives tend to focus on (expected) changes in the domain of natural hazards, while – in terms of exposed elements – current socio-economic, political or cultural characteristics are often extrapolated without assessing possible changes in detail. This is to a great extent due to the fact that the respective trends are extremely difficult to forecast with respect to quantity and in particular quality. However, developments in these spheres can alter vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of distinct population groups drastically, often in detrimental ways. This is of particular relevance in developing countries and emerging economies under comprehensive social and economic transformation which affects major development trends such as rapid urbanization, growing socio-economic disparities or changing social security networks, but also changes in health care provision, building regulations or risk awareness. Predicting possible progress-scenarios of those trends and evaluating the respective impacts on the resilience and adaptive capacity of communities remains a necessary exercise, even though being highly challenging. It is only through adding this dynamic component that the full picture of future climate change risks and adaptation requirements can be drawn and adequate action taken. Based on empirical research, the presentation uses the example of Vietnam to explore methodologies and experiences in assessing the dynamics in potential vulnerability pathways with respect to natural hazards and climate change. Vietnam serves as an instructive example as it is a country under rapid socio-economic and political transformation, urbanisation and severe exposure to climate change related hazards. The presentation argues that assessing and forecasting the trends under scrutiny is not an easy task, however, that there are sound scientific ways of approaching this question. It, therefore, calls for increased efforts to integrate dynamic elements into vulnerability and risk assessments and scenarios.